Coastal Fog: Basic Science, Water Resources, and Future Change
Award Amount
$725,810
Project Period
2025-2030 (5 years)
Role
Principal Investigator
Project Overview
Fog is the dominant characteristic of warm-season weather along coastal western North America, literally and figuratively permeating most aspects of coastal life. This multi-institutional research initiative addresses fundamental questions about coastal fog science, water resources, and future climate change impacts through an unprecedented collaborative approach.
Research Questions
Water Resources
- How much fog water is available for natural and human systems?
- How does fog water availability vary in space and time?
- What controls the efficiency of fog water capture?
Future Change
- How will the frequency of fog change? What about the fog water flux?
- How will the spatial footprint of fog and its seasonal cycle change?
- How will changing fog impact carbon and water balances in wildland and human-altered ecosystems?
Basic Science
- What is in fog? Are there constituents (chemical, microbial) that should be a concern?
- How predictable is fog: at weather timescales, seasonal timescales, decadal timescales, and beyond?
- How do local changes in fog relate to changes in the global energy budget?
Research Approach
Fog Predictability
Hypothesis: Fog frequency is controlled by synoptic-scale weather disturbances; predictability is limited by the predictability of these disturbances.
Water Availability
Creating first-of-its-kind fog reanalysis using both dynamically downscaled and machine learning approaches to assess 100+ years of fog water availability.
Future Change
High-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling using E3SM NARRM configuration to understand how climate change will impact fog patterns and water resources.
Collaborative Team
This project brings together researchers from five institutions representing the largest fraction of coastal fog researchers in the US:
Indiana University
Climate modeling and machine learning approaches
Scripps Institution
Remote sensing and climatic analysis
San Francisco State
Ecosystem impacts and micrometeorological effects
UC Santa Cruz
Chemical and biological analysis
CSU Monterey Bay
Field studies and water collection analysis
Expected Outcomes
Scientific Advances
Conceptual models for fog predictability, comprehensive fog water availability datasets, and new theories about climate change impacts on coastal fog systems.
Societal Impact
Actionable science for coastal California communities to build climate resilience, informing water resource management and ecosystem conservation strategies.
Virtual Fog Institute
Self-sustaining research community that will catalyze new collaborations and engage international fog researchers beyond the project duration.
Project Timeline: 2025-2030
Five-year comprehensive investigation combining cutting-edge modeling, extensive field observations, and interdisciplinary collaboration to transform our understanding of coastal fog systems.